The Comparative Angle – the kaleidoscope elections to come in May.

With just over four weeks to go until national elections in Scotland and Wales, and local elections in England, are you ready for the kaleidoscopic impact on the UK political and policy picture?

With the distinct possibility, even probability, of Plaid Cymru leading the next Welsh Government, there could be three Nationalist First Ministers across the UK. What might this mean for how intergovernmental relations is framed, and conducted, across our administrations? Will there be new strategic alliances? How does the Labour UK government adapt its approach, and better recognise its dual role as the state-wide and English authority?

At PolicyWISE we’ve been discussing these issues, and opportunities, with partners right across governments, parliaments, and the public policy community in recent weeks. Our recent polling shows a big public appetite for governments to co-ordinate and collaborate on policy priorities – no matter which parties are in charge. Voters in Scotland and Wales want to see their governments work together to tackle the Cost of Living, NHS issues, Housing, and the Economy.

At the elections, we might see Reform UK emerge as the lead opposition party in both Holyrood and the Senedd. That’s no consolation prize. It means influential positions for the party as Chairs of the top committees, and an important role in deciding which policies are debated and scrutinized in both parliaments. Might we see immigration, culture wars and climate change-scepticism becoming the lens for how we discuss policies and government performance in both nations? And what does this mean for how those viewing from Westminster consider Reform’s positioning?

The Greens could be the kingmakers, or at least the party who helps Plaid and the SNP pass their budgets, in both parliaments. How would this counteract Reform UK’s influence, and shape the road ahead to a Westminster election? The Green-Reform dynamic will certainly be one to watch out for in England – particularly in London. This all means that policymakers across the UK need to think through their practical actions on navigating a more complex and diverse landscape.

There is common ground between the parties – at least in diagnosing the key issues. Policy promises from the SNP, Plaid and Reform UK focus on NHS waiting times, business support, the rural economy, and the cost of living. Check out next week’s newsletter from us for further analysis of those policy promises.

Dewi Knight, Director PolicyWISE